The Relentless, the Chaotic, and the Bus Conductors
Mapping out and clustering every coach in Europe's 'Big 5' leagues since 2017
A few months ago, on the back of a sudden interest in the emerging territory of data in football, I copied a load of stuff into a blank spreadsheet, briefly basked in how clever it felt to be responsible for all those numbers sitting there on my screen, quickly realised that I’d now reached the full extent of my analytical powers and sulked back to take charge of Livorno’s Europa League quarter-final in Football Manager.
Under my visionary guidance, Gli Amaranto had risen from the backwaters of Italy’s third tier to be a consistently competitive Serie A presence, praised by all and sundry for their commitment to an entertaining and attacking style that belied the club’s lowly stature and meagre wage bill. The quintessential Football Manager project, in other words; playing out the sport’s take on the American Dream, where the little guys’ brave, creative innovation is rewarded by ascension to glory - the kind of thing that captures the imagination just as readily in the non-simulated world too.
It’s the same reason I latched myself onto Atalanta a few seasons back, likewise for my (and everyone else’s) burgeoning fascination with Marcelo Bielsa and Leeds United, and it was those two clubs that inspired me to fire up that first spreadsheet. I didn’t know how, but my grand plan was to do something or other with all the numbers I didn’t understand to create some kind of statistical template that could characterise the kind of teams I like to watch, and then, hopefully, to identify suitable candidates for my next bandwagoning fling before The Athletic could get their hands on them.
Fortunately, soon after giving up at the first hurdle, I stumbled upon this excellent piece on categorising playing styles in John Muller’s Space Space Space newsletter (free email sign-up required to read it, by the way!) which introduced me to all sorts of new concepts and launched me on the long and winding road that brings me here today. From my initial idea of trying to find teams who are like Leeds but are not Leeds, I’ve ended up mapping out and grouping every coach who has taken charge of at least ten consecutive games at a club in Europe’s big five leagues, across each season from 2017/18 to right this second (or, more accurately, to a couple of weeks ago).
Starting with a few dozen different metrics (I’ll get more specific in a minute) courtesy of Statsbomb (via FBref) and Understat, I used a tool called UMAP to read through all the data and reduce each row from its original multi-dimensional form into a far pithier 2D space - in simple terms, the program ‘learns’ about the coaches from all their associated stats and assigns them each two numbers which can act as X and Y coordinates. Those resulting numbers don’t mean anything in themselves, but they allow you to transform a vast array of data into an instantly comprehensible, visualisable form, whereby points closer together on the graph (or ‘map’) indicate an overall similarity in their data while those at opposite ends are, as you can guess, very much dissimilar.
From there, I ran a clustering algorithm which, via the magic of yet more utterly incomprehensible maths, divvied the map up into eight distinct(-ish) groupings. And voila! We now have a nice colourful visualisation to characterise the way each coach likes their football.
The raw image below requires far too much squinting to make sense of, so please do follow this link to find a more decipherable version (or, sadly, less decipherable if you’re on mobile) where you can zoom in and out, move around, and highlight particular coaches, teams, leagues and seasons should you so wish. Have fun exploring.
So, what do these clusters actually mean? To understand that, let’s first discuss the data that went into the calculations.
The initial point I’ll make is that if you haven’t yet followed the link to John Muller’s article above, do go and do that - all of what I’ve done here stems from and leans heavily on his work.
As he outlines, stats such as goals scored and shots taken were immediately removed from the equation, as the point here isn’t to just find out who has coached the best teams, rather to try to learn something about different approaches to playing the game.
In a similar vein, neither will we look at the total number of passes/touches/dribbles made during a match, preferring instead to use metrics such as percentage of passes played short/medium/long or what percentage of touches are taken in each third. This prevents coaches who rank highly in the possession column from being unfairly privileged throughout - a team who has more of the ball is likely to score highly across all of the ‘raw’ stats. For example, Jürgen Klopp in 2019/20 (whose Liverpool side had an average possession of 63.4%) ranks 3rd overall across all coaches in all seasons for the total number of long passes played per game, but plummets to 302nd when you look at his proportion of total passes hit long instead. Clearly, that latter measurement is far more instructive about how a Jürgen Klopp team plays than the former, and so that’s the direction we’ll take.
All that out the way, then, let’s see exactly which stats were plugged into the algorithm and look at the kinds of things that characterise each cluster. To do this, I’ve produced two heatmaps (one for how each cluster plays, another for how each cluster’s opponents play against them) showing each grouping’s ‘Z score’ per metric. You don’t need to wrap your head around what a Z score means - all you really need to know is that red = high, blue = low - but for those interested, the Z score represents the number of standard deviations from the mean across each category.
A few quick definitions: a progressive pass is one in which the ball travels more than 30 yards towards the goal; a carry is when a player travels with the ball at feet, while a dribble is more specifically when a player tries to carry the ball past an opponent; PPDA stands for ‘passes allowed per defensive action’, and it counts the number of passes made by the opposition in their half before the team in question makes an attempt to regain possession - the lower the number, the more intense the press.
So, let’s go through the clusters one by one and zoom in on who’s been placed where too.
‘Relentless’
This is probably where you’d want to be. Dominant in possession and aggressive in the press, with a high defensive line (judging by the metrics surrounding loose ball recoveries and opposition through balls and offsides) and a short-passing attacking style that keeps opponents firmly entrenched in their own half.
15 of the 16 Champions League semi-finalists over the four seasons we’re looking at fall into this category, which tells you most of what you need to know: this is the kind of football most elite clubs are aiming to reproduce. (The one absentee preventing the clean sweep is Ajax, who, being Dutch, fall outside our purview due to lack of freely available data, though I’d imagine it’s fairly safe to assume they’d be there or thereabouts too.)
Instinctively, you’d expect this end of the stylistic spectrum to be something of an exclusive club, but, surprisingly, this is the most densely populated of all the clusters. The numbers have noticeably swollen in the last couple of seasons, which perhaps suggests that the influence of modern football’s cutting edge has really started to take a meaningful hold increasingly further throughout the pyramid - see coaches at clubs like Sassuolo, Real Sociedad, Lille, Rennes and Leicester making their first appearances here over the last two seasons, for example.
Coaches who’ve made their home (spent two or more seasons) in the ‘Relentless’ sector:
Carlo Ancelotti (Napoli) — Christophe Galtier (Lille 19- ) — Ernesto Valverde (Barcelona) — Frank Lampard (Chelsea) — Gennaro Gattuso (Milan 17/18 + Napoli) — Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta 18- ) — Hansi Flick (Bayern) — Imanol Alguacil (Real Sociedad 19- ) — Julen Lopetegui (Real Madrid + Sevilla) — Julian Nagelsmann (RB Leipzig) — Jürgen Klopp (Liverpool) — Luciano Spalletti (Inter) — Lucien Favre (Dortmund) — Mauricio Pochettino (Tottenham 17-19 + PSG) — Maurizio Sarri (Napoli + Chelsea + Juventus) — Niko Kovač (Bayern + Monaco) — Ole Gunnar Solskjær (Manchester Utd 19- ) — Paulo Fonseca (Roma) — Pep Guardiola (Manchester City) — Peter Bosz (Dortmund + Leverkusen) — Quique Setién (Betis 18/19 + Barcelona) — Rudi Garcia (Marseille 18/19 + Lyon) — Thomas Tuchel (PSG + Chelsea) — Zinedine Zidane (Real Madrid)
‘Positive’
Essentially a more cautious version of the Relentless gang. Still possession-heavy and attack-minded, but generally not quite so bloodthirsty when it comes to pressing the opposition.
You can immediately build a mental image of their approach when seeing how high a proportion of touches their teams take in midfield without a correspondingly high share of touches and passes into and around the final third. Of course, not everyone here perfectly fits the “death by passing” mould, but you get the general idea.
Coaches who’ve made their home in the ‘Positive’ sector:
Antonio Conte (Chelsea + Inter) — Brendan Rodgers (Leicester 18/19 & 20/21) — Christian Gourcuff (Nantes) — Christophe Galtier (Lille 17-19) — Diego Simeone (Atlético Madrid 18- ) — Graham Potter (Brighton) — José Mourinho (Manchester Utd 17/18 + Tottenham 19/20) — Marco Rose (Mönchengladbach 19- ) — Mikel Arteta (Arsenal) — Patrick Vieira (Nice) — Paulo Sousa (Bordeaux) — Roberto De Zerbi (Sassuolo 18-20) — Simone Inzaghi (Lazio) — Unai Emery (Arsenal + Villarreal) — Vincenzo Montella (Fiorentina)
‘Pressing’
What it says on the tin, really. All the energy and intensity of the Relentless cluster, but with less dominance over the opposition. While their hounding and harrying does restrict the opponent’s possession share and pass completion rate by forcing them to play long, their comparatively low pressure regain percentage in comparison to their Relentless counterparts tells you most of the story. Opposing teams are able to beat their press more often than they’d like, and can take advantage of the associated high defensive line to find line-breaking through balls, often into their final third and penalty area.
What differentiates the Pressing cluster from the upcoming Chaotic one, though, is that coaches here do tend to be on the front foot more often than not - they play a possession-oriented, short-passing style when they have the ball, it’s just they probably could be better at doing it.
Coaches who’ve made their home in the ‘Pressing’ sector:
Adi Hütter (Frankfurt 19- ) — Eduardo Berizzo (Sevilla + Athletic) — Heiko Herrlich (Leverkusen) — Leonardo Jardim (Monaco 17-19) — Marcelo Bielsa (Lille + Leeds) — Oliver Glasner (Wolfsburg) — Paco Jémez (Las Palmas + Rayo Vallecano) — Ralph Hasenhüttl (RB Leipzig + Southampton 19/20) — Siniša Mihajlović (Torino + Bologna) — Stefano Pioli (Fiorentina) — Vincenzo Montella (Milan + Sevilla)
‘Chaotic’
“Sometimes maybe good, sometimes maybe shit”, to quote Gennaro Gattuso. Many of the characteristics of the Pressing cluster apply here too, just with an added urgency to get the ball forward. They play a lot of long balls, as do their opponents who are often forced into long clearances - low pass completion rates all around.
For fans of messy, gloriously frantic games of football. And half of Spain, it seems.
Coaches who’ve made their home in the ‘Chaotic’ sector:
Abelardo (Alavés 18/19 & 20/21 + Espanyol) — Asier Garitano (Leganés + Alavés) — Diego Martínez (Granada) — Gaizka Garitano (Athletic) — Jagoba Arrasate (Osasuna) — José Bordalás (Getafe) — José Luis Mendilibar (Eibar 18- ) — Manuel Baum (Augsburg 17-19) — Marco Silva (Watford + Everton 18/19) — Markus Gisdol (Hamburg + Köln 19/20) — Pablo Machín (Girona + Espanyol + Alavés 20/21)
‘Counter’
Another “as per the label” job. Happy to concede possession, hitting their fair share of long balls up the field when they win it back. Compared to their close neighbours in the Safety First crew, they’re a little more eager to press opponents, and, importantly, their focus on attack after regaining possession means they are more vulnerable to being countered themselves, as shown by the high proportion of opposition passes which end up in the final third and penalty area.
Coaches who’ve made their home in the ‘Counter’ sector:
Alain Casanova (Toulouse) — Javi Gracia (Watford 18/19 + Valencia) — Manuel Pellegrini (West Ham) — Marcelino (Valencia 17-19) — Michel Der Zakarian (Montpellier 18-20) — Paco López (Levante 18- ) — Pál Dárdai (Hertha 17-19) — Rolando Maran (Cagliari) — Sandro Schwarz (Mainz 18-20)
‘Safety First’
My first two attempts at naming this cluster were ‘Cagey’ and ‘Cautious’, but for some reason I felt it’d be ridiculous to have three groups beginning with the letter C.
These coaches’ teams neither have that much of the ball, nor press hard; neither do they hit it long on the counter, nor move the opposition around with short intricate passes - stylistically, it’s all a bit… nothing.
That said, a majority of this group’s constituents are playing their football this season, which probably says a lot about the overwhelming fatigue so many teams are having to cope with at the moment - a lot of this season’s football has been ‘a bit nothing’, hasn’t it?
Coaches who’ve made their home in the ‘Safety First’ sector:
Claude Puel (Saint-Étienne) — David Guion (Reims 19- ) — Giuseppe Iachini (Fiorentina) — Leonardo Semplici (SPAL 18-20) — Nuno Espírito Santo (Wolves) — Olivier Dall'Oglio (Brest) — Scott Parker (Fulham) — Stéphane Jobard (Dijon) — Stéphane Moulin (Angers 18- ) — Thierry Laurey (Strasbourg 18- ) — Vincent Hognon (Metz)
‘Direct’
Whack it long, get it in the mixer, no messing. Traditionally thought of as the English Way, and the data seems to agree: this is where the British Managers’ Lunch Club seemingly hold their weekly meetings - there’s a fair few of them knocking about in here.
Coaches who’ve made their home in the ‘Direct’ sector:
Chris Wilder (Sheffield Utd) — Claudio Ranieri (Nantes + Sampdoria 19/20) — Mark Hughes (Stoke City + Southampton 17/18) — Rafael Benítez (Newcastle Utd) — Sam Allardyce (Everton + West Brom) — Sean Dyche (Burnley)
‘Bus Conductor’
The Direct cluster’s placid, soporific sibling. Not everyone is quite as extreme in their bus-parking ball-aversion as Steve Bruce and co. on the map’s Western frontier, but as a general rule these are the sorts of coaches whose teams you’d usually avoid watching at all costs.
As with all of the more defensive clusters, though, occupying this zone isn’t necessarily a barrier to success - David Moyes’s 20/21 West Ham are included here, to give one particularly high-flying example.
Coaches who’ve made their home as ‘Bus Conductors’:
Christian Streich (Freiburg) — David Moyes (West Ham 19- ) — Davide Nicola (Udinese + Genoa) — Fabio Liverani (Lecce + Parma) — Filippo Inzaghi (Bologna + Benevento) — Friedhelm Funkel (Düsseldorf) — Heiko Herrlich (Augsburg) — Igor Tudor (Udinese) — Roberto D'Aversa (Parma) — Roy Hodgson (Crystal Palace 18- ) — Steve Bruce (Newcastle Utd)
So, having mapped out and clustered our coaches, that’s us done for part one. There’s more digging to be done yet, though, so if your overriding feeling so far is “and what about it?”, do check back shortly - you’ve got a fair few more colourful charts and cluttered maps in store for you.